Nigeria’s e-commerce sector is on a steep upward trajectory, fueled by rising internet access, smartphone adoption, and a rapidly expanding base of digital consumers. Projections show the market will reach between $8.5 billion and $9.5 billion by 2025 (Statista). This growth underscores why digitization in Nigerian markets is more than a trend, it is a transformative shift that presents vast opportunities for businesses nationwide, while also exposing the widening gap between formal digital platforms and the country’s vast informal markets.

“By 2026, 13% of all retail sales are expected to occur online. Nigeria’s e-commerce market is valued at $9.54 billion in 2025 and projected to reach $16.68 billion by 2030, driven by rising internet access and widespread smartphone use. This growth has intensified competition among both established and emerging e-commerce platforms, prompting businesses across sectors to leverage digital channels for greater growth and profitability”

– Chikodi Okereocha, Assistant Editor, The Nation newspaper.

The Imperative of Digitization in Kano’s Markets

Kano State stands at the center of Nigeria’s commercial landscape. With a population of over 15 million residents, an Internally Generated Revenue of N141.7 billion (2023), and thriving commercial hubs in agriculture, textiles, leather, and handicrafts, Kano’s open-air markets remain the backbone of wholesale and retail trade across Nigeria and West Africa.

Despite the scale and significance of these open-air markets, the lack of technological adoption remains a major barrier, stunting the growth of these markets, which already serve as a home to thousands of daily transactions. Traders in these markets largely rely on operating offline, carrying out face-to-face negotiations, cash payments, and analog bookkeeping. In an era where AI and other emerging technologies are transforming the way Africans shop, this type of traditional market reveals both the untapped potential and the urgent need for inclusive digital transformative efforts targeting increase in market, competitive advantage and revenue for the vendors.

Adoption Barriers: Beyond Access

While digital platforms are increasingly available, the core barrier for many market vendors may not just be access. Vendors also need credibility, know-how, and sustained relevance addressed directly. Barriers to adoption exist, not because of poor digital literacy or infrastructure gaps, but because vendors struggle to see how these tools integrate meaningfully into their daily business operations.

Beyond first-time use, the real challenge is retention: getting vendors not just to try a platform, but to trust it, return to it, and eventually rely on it. That requires more than utility, it requires alignment with existing behaviours, continuous value delivery, and systems that reflect the dynamic, relationship-driven nature of informal commerce. Without that, even the best solutions remain unused.

What the Theories Tell Us

Two key theories to prove this include;

• Psychology of Persuasion: This theory highlights how people are more convinced by tangible, concrete evidence of matters they can see and touch than abstract concepts. For vendors in these markets, especially those with lower technical ability, convincing them requires more than static screens. They have to experience the success of the process. As Cialdini’s psychology of persuasion reminds us, adoption is often driven by evidence of value and visible commitment. In informal markets, vendors are unlikely to embrace a digital tool unless they can experience its benefits firsthand. A working prototype, however minimal, serves as a credibility marker, reducing perceived risk and signaling that the solution isn’t just aspirational, but actionable. It tells vendors, “This is for you. And it works.”

• Theory of Adult Learning: Malcolm Knowles’ Adult Learning Theory reminds us that adults learn best through hands-on experiences and immediate application. For market vendors, a 20-minute live demo showing how to track inventory with a simple mobile app builds far more trust than hours of presentations. Practicality and usefulness are the core drivers of adoption.

DODO’s HCD Approach: How we Uncover What Really Drives Behaviour in Traditional Markets

At DODO Design, we are often asked how Human-Centered Design (HCD) can drive adoption and retention in informal markets across Africa. Our approach emphasizes that vendors are not passive recipients of technology; they are active participants in shaping what works.

Three frameworks we employ include:

• Reframed Journey Mapping – documenting the end-to-end flow of vendor activities, from sourcing goods to completing a sale, and identifying key points where digital tools can add value.
• Social Behavioral Tools – analyzing environmental, cognitive, and behavioral factors that influence how vendors engage with new technologies. For instance, does peer endorsement outweigh marketing messages? How do financial risks influence decision-making?
• Participatory Prototyping – co-creating solutions with vendors so they can test features early and refine them before launch, ensuring relevance and ownership.

By grounding strategies in lived behavior, we design interventions that build trust, align with daily practices, and promote long-term adoption.

A Market Too Big to Be Left Behind

Digitizing Kano’s large, traditional markets isn’t just a tech challenge; it’s a strategic imperative. These markets hold the key to unlocking grassroots growth, increasing internally generated revenue, and making Nigeria’s digital economy truly inclusive.

As we move toward a digitally connected future, we must ensure that the heart of Nigerian commerce is not left behind. With solutions stemming from winning methods such as human-centered design, adult learning theory, and behavioral psychology, there is a great opportunity to design a shift towards digitization adoption.